Lynchburg, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

082
FXUS61 KRNK 160024
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
Issued by National Weather Service Raleigh NC
824 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A lingering upper level trough, and warm unstable air, will
result in scattered strong to severe storms across the area
through the evening, particularly along/east of the Blue Ridge.
There is a slight risk for severe storms across the foothills
and Virginia Piedmont, with a marginal risk elsewhere. Storms
are possible again Friday, before a cold front moves in
Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the front for Sunday
into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 815 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Convection coming to an end this evening.

2) Strong to severe storms again tomorrow.

Earlier we saw a couple strong storms able to develop as the cap
eroded aloft. We were primed for severe weather with large
amounts of instability and shear, but forcing proved to be
elusive, so most of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been
cancelled. The watch remains over parts of central VA where a
strong storm continues to dive south. Currently that storm is
weakening and we may be able to cancel the rest of the watch
shortly.

Tomorrow is looking especially volatile, with instability and
shear in place as well as strong forcing. Could see a few
rounds of storms going into the late night hours tomorrow.



As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Scattered strong to severe storms.

2) Primary threat is large damaging hail. Secondary threat is
wind. Isolated threat for tornadoes.

Concern for the remainder of the afternoon and evening is the
development of strong to severe storms. Per the latest SPC
discussion...diurnal heating and orographic effects will aid in
thunderstorm development across the higher terrain this
afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will favor a southeastward
storm motion within an environment of moderate/locally strong
instability. 35-45 kts of northwesterly deep shear is
anticipated, supporting supercell structures and clusters,
posing a risk for large hail and damaging winds. The overall
hodograph structure and resulting storm motion appears favorable
for some very large hail over 2" in diameter.

Area highlighted for destructive hail is north and east of
Roanoke...this is where best shear profiles are being forecast.
As such, today is one of those days to put your car in the
garage or under a shelter if you have one. With supercells being
the favored storm mode, isolated tornadoes are also possible,
so closely monitor media outlets for forecast updates and
warnings.

The area being highlighted for the crux of the severe weather is
generally north and east of Roanoke. To the south and west, a
marginal risk for severe storms remains across most of the rest
of the forecast area, though PoPs are lower for the SW CWA.

Shower/storms are expected to dissipate after sunset, with
relatively quiet weather forecast for the remainder of the
night. That said will have to watch for nocturnal deep
convection over the Ohio Valley which may impact the western CWA
toward daybreak Friday.

Friday`s weather will hinge on where the ongoing morning
activity plays out. The outflow boundary associated with this
feature may become the focus for the afternoon renued
development, but question is where. CAMS are currently
highlighting the VA Piedmont.

Looking farther upstream, a trough of low pressure in the upper
Mid-West is expected to move east into the OH/TN Valleys.
Dynamic support from this feature is addition to increasing
boundary layer moisture up through the TN/OH valleys is expected
to lead to favorable conditions for severe storms which would
move downstream into our forecast area late in the day or
overnight Friday night. Per SPC a mature bowing MCS is expected
to move over the WV/VA/NC mountains and spread east across the
region, posing a risk for swaths of strong to damaging wind
gusts. Forecast guidance varies in timing and exact evolution of
this system across the region, but portions of the area may
need higher probabilities in subsequent outlooks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Chance of showers and storms early Saturday with generally
fair weather for Sunday.A few storms early Saturday could be
strong.

2) Warm temperatures continue through Saturday. Not as warm
Sunday.

A closed upper low will move through the Great Lakes Saturday,
dragging a trough across the mountains at some point early in
the day Saturday with a front to follow Saturday
afternoon/evening. Anomalously high PW`s will remain in place
across the area with nearly all ensemble clusters indicating
some amount of instability during the morning hours. Will retain
the forecast of increased PoPs during the early morning hours,
gradually tapering off through the day. By the time the front
arrives during the afternoon, mid level drying may be sufficient
to limit the areal coverage of showers and storms and keep them
primarily confined to the mountains. Low confidence in the
temperature forecast given the likelihood for early morning
cloud cover, followed by late day clearing. Generally speaking
the NBM paints in highs in the upper 70s in the mountains to the
upper 80s in the southeast.

Sunday appears dry and not as humid, temperatures about 5
degrees lower than Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) A gradual cooldown expected through the week.

2) Unsettled weather returns.

Monday appears to be dry with weak mid level ridging overhead.
Look for temps ranging from the mid 70s in the mountains to the
lower 80s in the east.

Tuesday through Thursday will see an upper low over the central
Plains kick out a series of weak shortwave troughs, yielding
unsettled weather downstream across the Appalachians. 00Z
ensemble cluster analysis suggests increased precip chances
across the area from mid week onward. Given expected cloud
cover, look for temps to be below normal for mid/late May,
especially Thursday as the longwave trough swings through the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 830 PM EDT Thursday...

Storms are dissipating, with just a strong cell probably staying
east of LYH. Otherwise we are seeing VFR conditions. Patchy fog
will again be possible overnight into Friday morning, likely
bringing some TAF sites down to sub MVFR. Additional
showers/storms may arrive early, then we should see a break, and
then additional storms develop tomorrow night.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Friday will see another chance for scattered showers/storms.
Saturday, a cold front moves through with showers and storms
moving into the area, then clearing for Saturday night and
Sunday. High pressure ridging into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday and
into early next week, keeping the weather quiet with likely VFR
conditions for all terminals. Unsettled weather returns Tuesday
into Wednesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 820 PM EDT Thursday...

The National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in
Blacksburg, VA is continuing to conduct a required, scheduled
update to their Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System
(AWIPS) that began Tuesday, May 13, 2025.

While we have taken back over most of the forecast operations,
our service back-up office in Raleigh, NC may occasionally
issued products until all services are restored. No impacts to
our core services of forecast products and weather watches,
warnings and advisories are expected during this period.

The forecast office in Blacksburg, VA will remain open and
staffed through the period for public and partner phone calls.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/SH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PM/SH
EQUIPMENT...PM